Search found 2 matches

by Stardust
Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:42 am
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Replies: 60
Views: 88302

Image

Here's a graph pulled strait from his article. I assume it's accurate. Looking at the green lines (8 fetches) you can see that by turn six you have about a 10% chance of having drawn an extra card. That 10% chance costs you just over 1.5 life. If you'll be facing off against opposing aggro decks (ie: almost always), this is clealy not worth it. But in the right meta, very rarely, playing fetches for thinning can be the right choice.

Basically my only issue is that he's rejecting fetchlands for thinning in 100% of cases when really it should only be rejected in 99% of cases.
by Stardust
Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:35 am
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Replies: 60
Views: 88302

I've never much liked the conclusion this article came to. Yes, everything he said was true, but I think it's worth mentioning that playing 8 fetchlands in a monocoloured deck will net you an extra card by turn 6 every 10 games or so, at the cost of about 1.5 life per game. Sounds like 15 life to draw one card, but when you really are playing proper aggro against an expected field of control, it actually should be considered.

Return to “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution”