Search found 11 matches

by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 5:54 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

Yeah, if you want to go with a non-mathmatical guide:

Super low mana decks (like 10 land green) - 1-2
Low mana decks (like Sligh) - 2-3
Med mana decks (like Dos Rakis) - 2-4
High mana decks (like Midrange/Control) - 3-5
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 5:25 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

The 15-20% top end is a little open ended. I don't think a lot of decks want to see 20% of their land in their opening hand, but I'm not sure if that's an auto-mulligan for most.

Maybe that's something that should be deck type specific? Like 10-15% for Aggro/Tempo and 10-20% for Midrange/Control.

For example, I run 24 land Aggro and I consider 5 to be a mulligan situation, but I've also played Control decks with 25 land that can easily keep 5 lands.
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 4:52 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

I think every deck - regardless of type - wants to see a certain % of their mana sources in their opening 7 - that's why they play that many lands.

Can you think of any specific deck that's not true for? Like, do you know of a single deck that plays X mana sources and doesn't want roughly 11% of those in their opening hand?
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 3:31 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

Not really.

Grull Sligh runs 18 lands and they want to see between 10% and 15-20% of those in their opening hand (or 2-3 lands).

Jund Midrange runs 24-ish land and 4 Farseek for 28 sources and they want to see between 10 and 15-20% of those in their opening hand (or 3-5 sources).

Two completely different decks that rules 1 and 2 are relevant for.

If you don't find any value in what we're doing, that's fine, you don't have to contribute - but there's no reason for you to continue to detract from what we're trying to do for no reason.
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 3:09 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

Okay, so first guideline:

Mana Source - Your opening 7 should have:
  • 1. No less than 10% of the total number of mana sources.
    2. No more than 15-20% of the total number of mana sources.
    3. 5-10% minimum of each color of mana represented.
    4. The correct amount/color mana to cast X% of the spells in your opening hand.
I threw number 4 out there because it seemed common sense, but what would you think is a good value for X? 50%?
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 2:46 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

I disagree - there absolutely is a "mathmatically correct" amount and type of mana sources to run based on your deck's curve and color weight. Ham covers that in the HGD thread.

This is a game of probabilities and the more you can stack probability in your favor the better your deck will run.

So, there should be a way to determine general guidlines for what is a "statistically correct" keepable hand and what isn't based on those probabilities.
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 2:11 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

So you want a solid representation of all the colors in your deck, but how do you express that?

5-10% of the total # of sources of every color represented?

For example, my Dos Rakis deck has 20 [mana]R[/mana] sources and 12 [mana]B[/mana], so I want at least 1-2 [mana]R[/mana] source and 0.6-1.2 (or 0-1) [mana]B[/mana] sources in my opening hand - which sounds about right.

I don't think we should have to account for how "weighted" the colors are in the deck though, because, assuming you made your deck correctly, the mana base will already reflect the "weight" of the colors.
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 1:52 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

Decide to drop some fortune-cookie wisdom on us?
by redthirst
Thu May 09, 2013 1:09 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

So I think we can safely say that a good rule of thumb would be that you want at least 10% of the mana sources in the deck in your opening hand.

So 2-3 depending on how mana intensive the deck is.

Think we can add that you want no more than 15-20% in the opening hand? I know I pretty much throw away any hand with 5+ lands in it unless I'm running something with a very high curve (in which case I'd be running 25+ mana sources and 5 land would fit in the 10-20% range).
by redthirst
Wed May 08, 2013 4:06 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

Well, I also know about how many lands I want to play without having to break out a calculator, but it's still nice to be able to know exactly what the mathmatically correct number of lands I should be playing is.

There is no guide like this concerning mulligans so I think it'd be helpful.
by redthirst
Wed May 08, 2013 3:08 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: Mulligan Rules?
Replies: 26
Views: 14856

Mulligan Rules?

So, does anyone think it's possible to create a set of more-or-less hard rules governing proper mulliganing?

For Example: The 7 card hand represents 11.67% of your starting 60 cards so it should - optimally - represent 11.67% of your total lands, creatures, and spells.

So, a deck that consists of 20 creatures, 20 spells, and 20 land should statistically have 2.33 creatures, 2.33 spells, and 2.33 land - or 2 creatures, 2 spells, 2 land and 1 mystery card (ohhhhhh...) in its opening hand.

Now, that was an easy example and only showed what an optimal hand looks like. My question is: how far can we deviate from that optimal hand and still have something that we should statistically keep?

:shrug:

Also, what are some rules we can establish to govern mulliganing?

Would it be fair to say that you'd want to auto
mulligan any hand with less than 5% or more than 20% of a deck's mana sources?

What about threats? When I play Aggro, I know I want so see at least 2 creatures - or roughly 10% of the deck's threats. Less than 10% is a mulligan, but I know that's not the case for something like Control that will keep hands without threats all day, but will toss any hand without enough control elements.

What about smaller hands? Once you've already thrown away 7 cards, what makes a keepable 6 card hand? Or 5? Or - God forbid - 4?

Thoughts?

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