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by redthirst
Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:55 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Replies: 60
Views: 22402

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

rieal82 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:12 pm wrote:How would scry affect HGD. Looking in regards to making land drops.


That would be gross to figure out, but I think - in a game - you can count on any scry effect you have as an additional card for probability purposes.

So if you have a 20 land deck and your opening hand is 2 Scry lands and you want to know what the chances are that you'll hit a 3rd land by turn 3, you'd plug these numbers into the Hypergeometric Calculator:
Pop: 60
# of Successes in Pop: 20
Sample Size: 11 - number of cards in opening hand (7) + number of cards you'll draw by turn 3 (2) + number of additional cards you'll see from Scry (2)
# of Successes in Sample: 3

For a 79% probability of having a 3rd turn land drop - up from 64% without the two Scry lands.

As for how
you'd factor in the chance that you'll get a Scry land and it'll then help you get your land drops... :shrug:

Maybe find the probability of drawing each Scry land and add that to the card's "weight"? Like if you had a 16% chance of drawing a Scry land by turn 2 then each Scry land in the deck would count as 1.16 lands when figuring if you can hit your 3rd land drop?

That's a bit advanced for me, though. I think I'd rather just play a stable mana base without taking Scry into account and just count any instance of it as a bonus.
by redthirst
Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:44 am
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Replies: 60
Views: 22402

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

Can't think of a better article to christen the new sub.

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