Dies to Removal

Iso voting for LMD was a big reason why I went that route. He's a stronger player than me, so I assumed he saw something I missed.

he didnt even read the game

I read the game, didn't help me any

I also asked Wraith to claim he had roleblocked our night kill target rather than LMD. Then we could have had some more crap on his pile. Instead, kind of like the randomization thing, he gave it away.

I'm not going to give Wraith any leeway ever again. I stupidly forgave the derp Jack reveal and the scum-as-balls rez hammer because "oh Wraith you can't help doing dumb things"

Iso voting for LMD was a big reason why I went that route. He's a stronger player than me, so I assumed he saw something I missed.

Players, specs, mod, please give me advice and review of my play. I feel like I could solved the game if I'd voted my gut (DK/Wraith) instead of logical LMD.

I have a hard time lying and being lied to, and the Jack fallout demoralized me. I knew the LMD vote was bad, but couldn't sort out Red and just wanted the game to be over. I really wanted to vote DK but going NL would just drag it out more.

Never playing mafia again etc

I'm going to enjoy reading the spec chat while I was going wild with the Jack wagon

If I knew that, I wouldn't have spent the whole week in WIFOM mode.

Alright, tired of waiting around.

Vote LMD

If that loses the game, good playing with you all! Except the scum team, h8cha bros.

A NL today gives us the same dilemma tomorrow, but CP might have some trick up his sleeve that he's not telling us about. I'm fine with giving it a shot, what else could go wrong? Lulz.

I'm annoyed, still can't find a better lynch than LMD.

This is particularly true for you because if he's town, then you're a masterfully played scum.

I'd love if I was able to go from lurk-mode scum newbie to master scum in 3 games, but I'm simply being outplayed here.

I'm annoyed, still can't find a better lynch than LMD.

Red said he was convinced of Suga's townieness based on an ISO.

DK:

I haven't cleared you as town, and the only player I'm sure of is C_P.

Repeating my intention to sheep vote whoever C_P votes.

The bomb existed, and I'm a shitty liar

I made a 4x4 grid with Red, Wraith, LMD and DK and started looking for associations using the most direct tool: lynch votes. Occam's Razor says that in a game with 2 scum players going into day 2, they're likely to vote to lynch town players instead of each other.

To construct the grid, I laid out the four players on each axis and got to work. I put an X into self pairs, since a player can't form a 2-man team with himself.

Then I put an X wherever a player has shown consistent voting against another player. Wraith consistently votes for Red, and Red consistently votes for Wraith so they
each get an X. DK consistently votes for LMD, so they get an X. LMD consistently votes for Wraith, so they get an X.

This arrangement gives only 2 possibilities for the scum team: Red/LMD or DK/Wraith.
.

There are more than 2 possibilities, if you believe me to be scum, than you believe that scum is willing ot lynch their own members to better themselves, which means there is no reason for me to be alive as at this point I am a massive detriment to scum (assuming I am)

If the principle of Occam's Razor doesn't apply, and scum are actively bussing until endgame, then you're right and other scum teams are likely.

I'm only trying to make sense of the data in a logic-based way, since my mafia skills aren't very sharp.

ham>Wraith>Dechs>RN>L_McD are my tiers, from scummiest to towniest. Has Lord_McDonalds vanished?

No been somewhat busy, work has been remarkably draining this week

few things I want to respond to and I'll prolly respond to them later today/tomorrow morning

OK.

Please answer the question I posted you earlier.

Thanks, ham.

I read through Red's posts in
Checkbox, F&I and Theros mafia. In Checkbox he was town, fairly lurky and asked a lot of questions. In F&I he replaced into a scum slot in the late game and spent most of his posts voting and trying to actively join/start wagons. In Theros he was town, fairly lurky again, spent lots of his time arguing with Z and asking questions.

He voted a lot in F&I, not as much in his two town games. He's voted fairly often here.

In Theros and F&I he was critical of Wraith, so that's not new.

He continued to hunt in Theros after being wagoned day 4, similarly to how he played here on day 2.

Overall his play here reminds me of Theros more than both F&I and Checkbox. The increase in voting may be a scum tell, but he's been on Wraith's ass pretty consistently. Not sure if it's relevant.

I didn't get a ton from the meta read on Red, but Wraith's behavior here matches his all-town-all-the-time style from previous games they have shared.

Sure thing, CP. I'll read him this weekend.

One of those envelopes has a bomb in it, so be careful.

Alright, let's see if this helps at all. Formatted for easy copy-pasting to Stardust.

I can generate 10 messages and ask him which of them I actually sent to LMD last night. He claims his ability works during the day.

I'm at lunch but I'll do the same grid with Suga instead of DK. It may not have enough information though, since he was playing with people who are no longer alive.

imopen is confirmed town in my eyes. too much rage for a scummer.

After a reread, I feel that CM is probably town. I don't see any real scum motivation in his posts.

After a reread, I REALLY don't like the wagon on Red. One innocuous comment has gotten him piled on. Looking at his wagon, I can assume that Wraith saw that one comment and his detective skills kicked in and he's latched on to that read. My
two favorite suspects on his wagon are rcw and inflatablepie. I'd like to see the pressure applied to RCW.

vote rcw

He said raspy and Pie were the scum suspects on your wagon.

Thanks Red.

I read your ISO of Suga and had mixed feelings. He has excellent reads, putting raspy as scum, io2 and CM as town, but he was wrong about Pie. I'm not sure if that's because he was scum or just because he's a good player who can read people.

I did some thinking about an old style of puzzle that I liked to do when I was young. They were called logic puzzles, and could usually be solved by laying out a grid and marking a dot or an X between pairs of things that you wanted to sort out.

They usually went like "a farmer has four cows. One cow is red, one is named Daisy, one is blue, the cow named Martha isn't brown" and you'd work your way through associations until you identified all the cows and their colors.

I made a 4x4 grid with Red, Wraith, LMD and DK and started looking for associations using the most direct tool: lynch votes. Occam's Razor says that in a game with 2 scum players going into day 2, they're likely to vote to lynch town players instead of each other.

To construct the grid, I laid out the four players on each axis and got to work. I put an
X into self pairs, since a player can't form a 2-man team with himself.

Then I put an X wherever a player has shown consistent voting against another player. Wraith consistently votes for Red, and Red consistently votes for Wraith so they each get an X. DK consistently votes for LMD, so they get an X. LMD consistently votes for Wraith, so they get an X.

This arrangement gives only 2 possibilities for the scum team: Red/LMD or DK/Wraith.

I find it interesting that Red laid out an almost identical scum team pairing, except with me teamed with LMD instead of him, since naturally Red would put himself as town and so would I.

Other players here should evaluate this matrix for themselves (with or without players they think are confirmed town).

ham, am I scum?
Who's scummier between Wraith and DK?

I'm not sure about you. You've been teetering back and forth all game for me.

I find DK scummier than Wraith.

Ok, apologies, maybe it was only Red who didn't claim his N1 mail. He sent mail to DK N2, allegedly. I showed DK's mail to me from N3.

Red and DK also never claimed their sent mail.

My biggest qualm with regards to LMD-scum is that everyone basically agrees that he's scum. I've never seen a situation where that happens in lylo and that person actually flips scum.

I had login issues as well.

My gut says RN is scum, but I'm having serious trouble finding a scumbuddy for him. Dechs doesn't work since he had a very long time period where they could both hammer. If Wraith and RN are scum I will congratulate them. I
think ham is town.

RN/Lord_McD? Muh.

I'll put in more work in this game in the morning.

L_McD: Why are you town? I want you to tell me what you've done that makes you town.

Alright, I'll play along.

Unvote

Who would you like me to dig into? I'll re-read again.

Can you look into Red. He claims to have a mail watcher ability. What if he could forge mail or alter it? Very hypothetical, but it has been on my mind as of late.

He claimed to mail imopen2 on night 1, which corresponded with his death. No idea if that matters, but I noticed it.

My biggest qualm with regards to LMD-scum is that everyone basically agrees that he's scum. I've never seen a situation where that happens in lylo and that person actually flips scum.

I had login issues as well.

My gut says RN is scum, but I'm having serious trouble finding a scumbuddy for him. Dechs doesn't work since he had a very long time period where they could both hammer. If Wraith and RN are scum I will congratulate them. I think ham is town.

RN/Lord_McD? Muh.

I'll put in more work in this game in the morning.

L_McD: Why are you town? I want you to tell me what you've done that makes you town.

Alright, I'll play along.

Unvote

Who would you like me to dig into? I'll re-read again.

I voted LMD because chasing my own tail by rereading the thread has gotten me nowhere. He's the lynch that involves the least WIFOM.

I'm voting you now, homie.

Vote LMD

I can't crack this game even after another re-read, so I'm rolling the dice. Iso is a good player, he said we should lynch LMD.

Yolo mode activated.

I've become increasingly paranoid and can't trust my reads anymore, so I'm going to sheep C_P and vote whatever he does. If we lose, I'm ok with it, I just hate feeling like I threw the game with the Jack mislynch. I don't want to do it again.

Red:

I understand ruling out LMD-me, but why do you rule out DK-Wraith as a team?

I did plenty on D2 and D3 and it blew up in my face. You can understand why I'd be hesitant to be wrong again, when it means losing the game outright.