Dies to Removal

One thing I've been thinking is that maybe this site is better prepared to play shorter games. I'm thinking week long deadlines max for each Day (maybe a bit longer for Day 1). Reduces the stress of arguing for days on end and lessens the amount of reading required to do actual analysis (something that people seem reluctant to do at times).

On the other hand, some players seem to only want to post every other day, making it tough to hold to a strict deadline like that. I don't know what the answer is. Maybe mafia's just dead. Seems like half the players in this game didn't really want to play.

I used my second shot last night on a quote from post 919 (DK), where he says "I'm totally scum." He was being sarcastic, but stardust accepted this submission, and I got a positive result. DK was telling the truth when he said he was scum. Curiously, DK never participated in the "I am town" posts, so I had to dig quite hard for a viable statement.

Mafia is won by looking at what IS certain, at what you can see is true, the patterns you can see in player's words and thoughts.

A device sabotage is perfectly reasonable to expect from Stardust. It would also explain the no night kill Night 1 because there should be only one scum left. Using the ability takes the place of the night kill (according to Stardust's previous setups). Boom. Solved.

...but we had a kill on the night that you theorize Imopen was tampered with...

How about that saboteur ability we're theorizing? We knew day one that MoJo was building a day kill. Sabotage it at night, it fails during the day.

For this theory of yours to work, we're assuming that imopen's ability was tampered with, AND that CK's vig-kill was tampered with, by a third-party, without any reason to believe that the scum have one of those abilities.

Plus, if it were a sabotage device like you said, then I don't think Imopen should have gotten any results. It should have simply failed to work, as did CK's vig.

Also, you're looking at this completely backward. What scum would have been "setting this up", way back on D2?

What scum would have had an ability to use to protect Imopen, during the day, and WANT to use it, when he could have reaped a free kill by letting it happen?

We've verified that the kill could only have come from scum. If you think that some friendly scum helped save a townie Imopen...I don't even know what.

We have a verified, failed kill on Imopen. CK isn't lying - look at the thread. And if CK isn't lying, Imopen is guilty as sin. No townie was responsible for that failed kill, and no scum would have used a protection ability on Imopen during the day, on Day Two. You don't have to take it on faith from me, think it through for yourself.

This is the exact reasoning I used to push the final mislynch to win the game as scum in Gone Postal.

Did you have the actions of every single townie and scum player accounted for, in that game?

Do we in this game?

Didn't think so.

Yes...we do. CK and I have had this conversation twice, back and forth.


All living players deny responsibility. So, all living townies are ruled out.

GR was already dead, so it wasn't him.

Ham declared at post 861, IIRC, that he was building his bat device. Rez built his comm device. I stated this publicly, while he was alive, and he did not contradict me. That's everyone.

We have a verified, failed kill on Imopen. CK isn't lying - look at the thread. And if CK isn't lying, Imopen is guilty as sin. No townie was responsible for that failed kill, and no scum would have used a protection ability on Imopen during the day, on Day Two. You don't have to take it on faith from me, think it through for yourself.

This is the exact reasoning I used to push the final mislynch to win the game as scum in Gone Postal.

Did you have the actions of every single townie and scum player accounted for, in that game?

We have a verified, failed kill on Imopen. CK isn't lying - look at the thread. And if CK isn't lying, Imopen is guilty as sin. No townie was responsible for that failed kill, and no scum would have used a protection ability on Imopen during the day, on Day Two. You don't have to take it on faith from me, think it through for yourself.

From DK's perspective, anyways. I'm not sure it's quite so cut and dried as that, but I do know we're probably going down in flames if we mislynch on me, leave someone who's demonstrated inexplicable untargetability alive, and eliminate the only guy who took steps to give CK another vig-shot for tomorrow.

If you want I can submit plans for a chronoboost as well.
It takes just one day, doesn't it?

You want to play to your win condition more often than not.

The other four townies get to finish building powers and Imopen can retry the cop thing so we can be more certain.

Please explain how Imopen coming up with another cop result tells us *anything*.

The advantage of taking an actual lynch shot today is that it won't end the game. We'll have two shots to get it right, not just a single one. It's less useful to worry about mislynching, than it is to worry about the consequences of when you mislynch, or who you mislynch. We don't want *one* shot to get it right with lots of information. We want two or possibly three shots to get it right, and our 2nd shot will have even more information than we'd get if we no-lynched today. But we don't get multiple shots if we let Imopen skate through today. We only have one way to deal with him, the lynch, and it won't be ready in time.

Did you read my analysis that demonstrates that the only scum team which you believe in as a possibility that can feasibly win is a Red/Imopen team? If it's a single scum, no matter who it is, they've already lost, even if we mislynch AND mis-vig AND mislynch someone again. That's not what you have to worry about. The only thing that can stop us now, is if we fail to play safe against the two-scum gambit.