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by Dechs Kaison
Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:25 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Replies: 60
Views: 88479

Hey Ham, I think someone broke your OP. There's a few extra returns and some broken tags.
by Dechs Kaison
Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:31 pm
Forum: Strategy and Theory
Topic: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Replies: 60
Views: 88479

Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:

I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?
What the %'s mean is how likely it is that on turn three you'll have your third land. Basically, at 50% it just as likely to have your third land by turn three than it is you won't have it. Half of your games will have 3 lands on turn 3; the other half won't. Is that good enough for you?

I can't answer what the correct number is, only you know that. Will your deck survive with half of its games not having a third land on turn
three?

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