Strategy and TheoryHow I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

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LP, of the Fires
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Post #41 by LP, of the Fires » Wed Jan 01, 2014 7:08 pm

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles ... ur-spells/

There's math in there that only Ham can appreciate.
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Post #42 by hamfactorial » Wed Jan 01, 2014 7:28 pm

That article is very good :smileup:

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Post #43 by Zooligan » Thu Jan 09, 2014 5:31 pm

Did anyone get his sim code to run? One problem I found with his code was that while he was calculating how much mana you needed to cast a particular card on Tx, he wasn't factoring in actually having that card on that turn as well.

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Post #44 by hamfactorial » Thu Jan 09, 2014 6:01 pm

Perhaps he should have consulted my post before writing his. lozlzlozl

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Post #45 by Pedros » Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:24 pm

Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:

I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?
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Post #46 by Dechs Kaison » Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:31 pm

Pedros » Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:24 am wrote:Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:

I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?


What the %'s mean is how likely it is that on turn three you'll have your third land. Basically, at 50% it just as likely to have your third land by turn three than it is you won't have it. Half of your games will have 3 lands on turn 3; the other half won't. Is that good enough for you?

I can't answer what the correct number is, only you know that. Will your deck survive with half of its games not having a third land on turn
three?


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Post #47 by magicdownunder » Wed Mar 26, 2014 10:11 am

hamfactorial!! What is the optimal amount of lands to play if you ONLY want to see 3 lands (no more no less) - I only have 4x 3cc spells so I don't really care if i don't hit 3 lands on the curve though hitting 2 lands sure is nice...?
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Post #48 by hamfactorial » Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:10 pm

If you only want to see 3 lands no more no less, play a 3 card deck (all land)

:ape:

Pick a land count that drops below 50% for the turn after you want to play your last land.

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Post #49 by Dechs Kaison » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:25 pm

Hey Ham, I think someone broke your OP. There's a few extra returns and some broken tags.


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Post #50 by hamfactorial » Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:57 pm

Hmm, that doesn't look good. Thanks Dechs, I didn't know it was looking wonky.

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Post #51 by hamfactorial » Mon Nov 17, 2014 6:34 am

I think I got all the weird formatting ironed out. Please let me know if something still looks wrong.

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Post #52 by Platypus » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:57 am

I don't know what the problems were with this, but I had some weird formatting and broken tags in the UR Delver primer post as well. Fixed it on Oct 7th which was after the port, right? So, yeah could have been the port.
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Post #53 by Jack » Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:44 am

It happened with my Riku primer as well, and, from what I've noticed, many of the longer posts from a while ago.
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Post #54 by Whole » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:57 pm

I'd just like to point out that if you want to calculate a quick probability, you can use Calculators online instead of opening a spreadsheet. http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/h ... etric.aspx
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Post #55 by Kaitscralt » Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:36 pm

Quite.
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Post #56 by hamfactorial » Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:39 pm

:sherlock:

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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

Post #57 by magicdownunder » Mon May 23, 2016 2:19 pm

The photos are dead I had to mash the numbers myself D:
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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

Post #58 by hamfactorial » Mon May 23, 2016 4:28 pm

Oh no! I removed my photobucket account, forgetting that I still had the numbers stored there. I'll look after work to see if I still have copies stored locally.

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Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

Post #59 by ( G_R ) » Tue May 24, 2016 5:49 pm

Ya blew it.

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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

Post #60 by imopen2 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 7:17 am

hamfactorial » Mon May 23, 2016 3:28 pm wrote:Oh no! I removed my photobucket account, forgetting that I still had the numbers stored there. I'll look after work to see if I still have copies stored locally.


will this ever happen? also, these tables are sweet. have you perhaps done some calculations for 40-card limited decks and number of lands drawn by turn X? it may have been one of the missing ones...
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution

Post #61 by admin » Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:38 pm

I mean, we can simply host the images here and update the links.

Ham, if you want me to do that, just zip them and put them somewhere and I'll take care of business


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