How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Moderators: hamfactorial, LP, of the Fires
- LP, of the Fires
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 4857
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:06 am
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
- Zooligan
- Regular Member
- Posts: 364
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:12 am
- Location: Rock Hill, SC
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
-
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 995
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:20 am
Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:
I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?
I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?
Sig by NerdBoyWonder
- Dechs Kaison
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 1967
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:46 pm
- Location: Abu Dhabi, UAE
- Contact:
What the %'s mean is how likely it is that on turn three you'll have your third land. Basically, at 50% it just as likely to have your third land by turn three than it is you won't have it. Half of your games will have 3 lands on turn 3; the other half won't. Is that good enough for you?Ok I read this for a first time, so I still have a question:
I understand that if we want to play stuff on curve we should have at least 50% chance of drawing that many lands till this turn, right? So for example deck that ends curve on 3 should play at least 18 lands? Which is a correct number? 23 to break past 75% ?
I can't answer what the correct number is, only you know that. Will your deck survive with half of its games not having a third land on turn
three?
Fuck you and the green you ramped in on. - My EDH battle cry. If I had one.
- magicdownunder
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 3234
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:55 pm
- Location: NSW, Australia
- Contact:
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
- Dechs Kaison
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 1967
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:46 pm
- Location: Abu Dhabi, UAE
- Contact:
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
- Platypus
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 1448
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:30 pm
-
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 2667
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:36 am
- Whole
- Regular Member
- Posts: 240
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:31 am
I'd just like to point out that if you want to calculate a quick probability, you can use Calculators online instead of opening a spreadsheet. http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/h ... etric.aspx
excerpt from my t8 profile:
- Kaitscralt
- A frog among toads
- Posts: 21216
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:48 am
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
- magicdownunder
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 3234
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:55 pm
- Location: NSW, Australia
- Contact:
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
The photos are dead I had to mash the numbers myself D:
- hamfactorial
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 8400
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 4:57 am
Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Oh no! I removed my photobucket account, forgetting that I still had the numbers stored there. I'll look after work to see if I still have copies stored locally.
- ( G_R )
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 14646
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 12:15 am
- Location: Mania
Re: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
Ya blew it.
Enviado de meu SM-G935F usando Tapatalk
Enviado de meu SM-G935F usando Tapatalk
That explains why people keep coming over for chicken nuggets
- imopen2
- Tire Aficionado
- Posts: 6066
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:59 am
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
will this ever happen? also, these tables are sweet. have you perhaps done some calculations for 40-card limited decks and number of lands drawn by turn X? it may have been one of the missing ones...Oh no! I removed my photobucket account, forgetting that I still had the numbers stored there. I'll look after work to see if I still have copies stored locally.
Kijin Zabuza: My pokemon cards bring the boys to the yard
Kijin Zabuza: And they're like, "Oh **** he has cards"
TwinBGenerationX: damn right
TwinBGenerationX: I wanna trade cards I could trade you, BUT NOT MY CHARIZARD!
Kijin Zabuza: And they're like, "Oh **** he has cards"
TwinBGenerationX: damn right
TwinBGenerationX: I wanna trade cards I could trade you, BUT NOT MY CHARIZARD!
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 1235
(View: POSTS_VIEWTOPIC /POSTS_VIEWTOPIC_INTO) - Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:36 pm
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Hypergeometric Distribution
I mean, we can simply host the images here and update the links.
Ham, if you want me to do that, just zip them and put them somewhere and I'll take care of business
Ham, if you want me to do that, just zip them and put them somewhere and I'll take care of business
Return to “Strategy and Theory”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests