Running Tally: Return to Ravnica -- Update 9/25/12

[Thrillho]

Hello and welcome to Return to Ravnica's Running Tally thread. Please use this thread to keep track of current trends in set and individual card values from Return to Ravnica. Please keep posts topical and informative. If you're using pricing data from a source or sources, please remember to cite your sources (I.E. "I got my prices from tcgplayer's low/mid/high prices" "I got my prices from blacklotusproject" "I got my prices from rancoredelf.com"). If your prices are speculative, please explain how you reached that conclusion.

Thanks and have fun!

Top 20 card values for RtR, 9/25/12: TCGPlayer low (pre-prerelease)
1. Jace, Architect of Thought (m) -- 29.98
2. Vraska the Unseen (m) -- 28.82
3. Abrupt Decay (r) -- 19.92
4. Overgrown Tomb (r) -- 13.88
5. Hallowed Fountain (r) -- 12.46
6. Steam Vents (r) -- 11.72
7. Angel of Serenity (m) --
10.99
8. Armada Wurm (m) -- 10.51
9. Blood Crypt (r) -- 10.47
10. Rakdos's Return (m) -- 8.96
11. Lotleth Troll (r) -- 9.77
12. Temple Garden (r) -- 8.95
13. Rakdos, Lord of Riots (m) -- 7.95
14. Dreadbore (r) -- 7.39
15. Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius (m) -- 6.99
16. Detention Sphere (r) -- 6.50
17. Trostani, Selesnya's Voice (m) -- 5.99
18. Deathrite Shaman (r) -- 5.00
19. Supreme Verdict (r) -- 4.96
20. Epic Experiment (m) -- 4.34

Planeswalkers are, as usual, on top. Jace has taken Vraska over as the #1 stunner for the set, though I couldn't personally tell you why (I haven't played in like forever, so please pardon my ignorance as I adjust).

Abrupt Decay has positive functions in all constructed formats, and its price reflects as much. It stands to see how it will affect older formats, as it clearly fits in with the prospective format decks of Junk, Jund, and BG/x Zombies.

On the tails of those three archetypes is Overgrown Tomb, the frontrunner for Most Valuable Shockland in the set
despite limited use in Modern.

Angel of Serenity follows non-Temple Garden Shocklands as a triple Fiend Hunter over the top of most curves seems like a good way to close out a game to speculative deckbuilders.

Armada Wurm, the new Titan in a post-Titan Standard, offers -2 power, but trample and its own extra body on Wolfir Wilverheart. 5 power, multiple colors, non-Angel creature type, and multiple bodies put it outside of range for most current popular removal after Scars block rotates, so it's a card I would keep my eye on should Ramp or Junk become forerunners in a non-Mana Leak Standard.

Rakdos's Return is an overcosted Blightning, both in value and mana.

Lotleth Troll, the card responsible for the fastest turnabout I've ever had while evaluating a card, has crazy Zombie interactions for most of the cards you want to play in Zombies.

The remaining cards are Temple Garden -- valuable because of its dual land status -- mythics, and Detention Sphere, Supreme Verdict and Deathrite Shaman.

nI warmed up to Deathrite Shaman as a counter to a number of strategies expected to appear in the format, but I imagine it will mostly exist as a Willow Elf in Standard. Supreme Verdict is the only reasonable Wrath with additional lack of conditions. Detention Sphere is unappreciated because it's being printed at the same time as Abrupt Decay, but will probably still see play in a Standard with Populate and Lingering Souls as possible interactions.

[Manasjap]

Let me try this using some european prices. Not sure how useful this will be, so feedback is always appreciated.

Top 15 card values for RtR, 9/25/12: MagicCardMarket low (pre-prerelease)(also, this shit is in euros)
1. Vraska the Unseen (m) -- 22,50
2. Jace, Architect of Thought (m) -- 18,50
3. Armada Wurm (m) -- 18,00
4. Abrupt Decay (r) -- 16,99
5. Hallowed Fountain (r) -- 10,25
6. Steam Vents (r) -- 8,49
7. Angel of Serenity (m) -- 8,00
8. Overgrown Tomb (r) -- 7,50
9. Blood Crypt (r) -- 7,75
10. Lotleth troll (r) -- 7,75
11. Rakdos, lord of Riots (m) -- 6,99
12. Temple Garden (r) -- 6,48
13. Rakdos's Return (r) -- 6,25
14. Deathrite Shaman (r) -- 5,30
15. DreadBore (r) -- 4,85

These prices show a similar pattern to the prices mentioned above.

The price of Armada Wurm seems a bit off to the high end, which is probably be caused by the low current availability.

[Checkbox]

How is tcgplayer a better gauge of prices (both absolute and relative) than say, Starcity or Channelfireball?

[jonnyjonski]

StarCity always sets the Highest possible amount someone will pay for a card. You can almost always find it cheaper somewhere else. ChannelFireball is usually around the same cost. What you pay in those two places is reliability and service. You will always get your cards from them in a reasonable time and they will always be as described. If you have any issues with what you receive from them, they will almost always send you a replacement and tell you keep what you have.

Other than that....sites like MagicTradersOnline and TCGPlayer usually post prices that relfect an average of many different retailers along with individual sellers through trading sites and singles sales. It's a better gauge of what a card is REALLY selling for second hand.

[Checkbox]

TCGplayer lows can be skewed by one seller being multiple dollars below everyone else, though.

I guess it depends on what the actual point of a thread like this is; if we're just looking at the most expensive cards from a set and their relative values, Starcity/CFB seems better since their relative values are more reliable across the board.

If you want to know what you should be paying for cards, then I guess TCGPlayer low is a reasonable gauge of that.

[Thrillho]

I use TCGPlayer low because that is the lowest price you can pay for a card at an online store without deep googling or going to eBay (which is almost entirely higher than TCGPlayer low due to the new fee restructuring the site underwent at some point). Also if one seller is dollars lower than the next highest seller, did you know that that dollars-lower figure is still the lowest price you will pay to own a copy of that card? I know, I was surprised too.

[Checkbox]

Well, one seller selling one copy of one card dollars lower than the rest isn't very indicative of the actual price of a card (especially considering most people want >1 of a card). Like, sellers do that to throw off the low prices

[Thrillho]

Currently, most all of the prices (above) are indicative of 4+ copies of a card at its lowest value, just due to the nature of presales (and if that isn't the lowest 4x copy of a card, cards in multiple copies are generally pennies cheaper, also due to the nature of presales). In future updates, after the set releases, etc, I'll base prices off of lowest value of the card at 4+ copies.

I appreciate your concern over skewing data, but this isn't my first rodeo and I can assure you I've been doing this pricing and trade game to modest success, to put it lightly.

I understand that 1x copy of a card doesn't necessarily indicate it's value, and generally I use low values of multiple available copies for pricing things. None of the stores selling these cards actually ("officially") have these cards in stock at this time, so numbers available are actually irrelevant unless they're 0.

[Checkbox]

In future updates, after the set releases, etc, I'll base prices off of lowest value of the card at 4+ copies.

This is mostly what I was worried about.

[Col. Khaddafi]

So, these duals, how will price memory will affect them?

Overgrown tomb was in the 1st set
Steam Vents in the 2nd
Hallowed Fountain and Blood Crypt in the 3rd (the less opened)

Specifically Hallowed Fountain was more expensive than the other shocklands because of the colors and the fact that it came in the least drafted set (dissention). Will this lead to this set fountain being slightly above what it should be if it was being printed alongside the other 4 shocklands?

[Ximbad]

The real problem with tcg player is when one site has a low posted price that it makes up for with high shipping. The more expensive a card is the less this will have an effect, though. It's a real pain when you look up stuff like lingering souls.

@Hallowed fountain: I expect all shock lands to drob quite a bit after this set is widely opened. Original ravnica block cards are going to be worth more than reprints because of lesser suply and price memory.

Also I think duasl are going to spike with whatever is good in type two, just like every other set.

Edit: I figured out what ypu wer saying. The effects of price memory are already built into the presale prices. I'd expect the duals that were most expensive to have a one/two dollar premium over what would be expected given their level of demand.

[Thrillho]

Not 100% on what you're asking, but original copies of cards hold slight to modest values over reprints, except in cases where the card get better art that isn't reprinted and other factors that I can't illustrate right now because my brain is still foggy from adjusting to my new environment, but generally the first printing of a card is considered rarer because it's OOP and more "pimp" than newer versions. The card will decline in value due to greater availability from a reprint, but the reprint should be worth less (and the older copy should gain more value, IE Overgrown Tomb, one of the least valuable old duals).

Fountain is currently second (??) in value of all the duals specifically because UW is consistently a good deck in like all of the formats, and that's likely to keep its value inflated, though it may not retain that position if the other duals gain traction over it (IE Overgrown Tomb is worth more than
it right now; see this possibly happening with Blood Crypt; Steam Vents for whatever reason will probably not surpass Fountain because if being in like 10 decks in Modern doesn't do it nothing will).

[Thrillho]

Re: Lingering Souls -- I usually buy to maximize shipping. If you're buying 4+ copies of something, it usually beats out shipping between multiple stores with better prices. For this reason, lowest 4+ copies is the best low-value indicator of a card's value (and generally what I use when pricing in trading, since median can mean literally anything).

[Col. Khaddafi]

My point is that there are more Overgrown tombs from ravnica (1st set) than hallowed fountains (3rd set). I'm surprised to see that Hallowed is cheaper than overgrown, which would tend to support the theory that supply of the former rav shocks is not affecting prices too much.

[Thrillho]

My point is that there are more Overgrown tombs from ravnica (1st set) than hallowed fountains (3rd set). I'm surprised to see that Hallowed is cheaper than overgrown, which would tend to support the theory that supply of the former rav shocks is not affecting prices too much.

It's demand affecting the prices right now. Everyone thinks BG is the shit with Zombies, Junk, and Jund as all massively popular gauntlet Standard decks.

[Ximbad]

The old supply is going to be washed out by the new supply. They sell a lot more cardboard these days.

[Thrillho]

So Jace keeps going up and Overgrown Tomb rose over the weekend.

[Ximbad]

A set of five prerelease dice goes for 25. Lol.

[Checkbox]

HA! I totally traded for one of each at almost nothing (since I was handed 3 of them). Not getting rid of them, though.

[Thrillho]

Jace is currently at a low of $40 ($39.95-99, quantity and shipping costs depending) and sold out at $35. The respective color-related Shocklands have not seen such gains, though Hallowed Fountain has risen past the $13 mark.

Assuming there is an SCG event this weekend, get ready to launch any Jaces you open into the money pool, as you, at best, have another Liliana on your hands. Except the cap is probably around $50 or so (maybe higher, but then you're delving into dangerous, Mind Sculpter-related territories), because Jace.

While this Jace is probably worth at least his starting value, $40 is Elspeth height money and, in case you've forgotten, Elspeth does a decent job at single-handedly winning the game after resolving.

Still waiting on Ajani, Caller of the Pride to hit <$10.

[Thrillho]

Doublepost:
Do you guys want me to set up threads for the other non-new Standard sets?

[Col. Khaddafi]

I think the M13 one could be useful. Avacyn returned I don't know, the set is almost forgotten by now.

[Thrillho]

the singles from innistrad and dark ascension have skyrocketed is what i was cautious of.

[admin]

I think we can afford to have running tallies for everything that moves. Your call

[Thrillho]

I'll work on that either tonight or tomorrow, then; I have a lot of running around to do (literally) before comic con, so that'll put a limp in my gait.

As for RTR: Steam Vents is currently at the bottom and no one could have possibly foreseen this (hint: BR Zombies and Jund were primed to be huge from the second everyone went nuts for Zombie cards).

Jace is over the $45 mark because I told you so/it is actually amazing.

Vraska and Abrupt Decay are starting to deflate pretty quickly, each losing about $5 from their presell values (down to $23 and $16.50, respectively, at lowest 4+ copies on TCGPlayer).

Armada Wurm and Angel of Serenity are stable and gaining, respectively. PhantomS pointed out elsewhere that the Angel is insane while I'm busy trying to cut it out of lists that should otherwise play it.

Trostani has roughly doubled to $14 because it does all of the things people who want those types of effects do.
n
Most everything else is about stable. Mizzium Mortars, Cyclonic Rift, Sphinx's Revelation, and Supreme Verdict have gained between dollars and loose change in value.

A comprehensive write-up will come either first or last from the Standard tally threads, but that should give you a good idea of where everything from RTR is currently in value-town.

Additional query: do you guys want me to also do MVP commons/uncommons from the set as a separate list? Or do we not break anything resembling the value barrier frequently enough to warrant such an inclusion?

[imopen2]

if there is an uncommon that is on the rise or at clamp-like value levels i'd like to know. it's up to you tho since you'd be the one doing the work

[Thrillho]

for right now, aside from obvious dollar uncommons like Ultimate Price and Dryad Militant, nothing is particularly standout 1 week into RTR.

[Thrillho]

Jace is currently down to $24-25
Sphinx's Ultimatum is up to $20
Angel of Serenity is up to $21
Shocklands are between $8 (Steam Vents) and $12 (Temple Garden and Hallowed Fountain); I would nab them if they drop a dollar or two because while that may not be their floor, it is also 100% not their ceiling.
Vraska has fallen below $10.
Deathrite Shaman is $8-9. I would hold any copies you have unless something drastic affects the card in older formats. I would acquire more if they for whatever reason drop in value, as I feel like this is RTR's (less universally applicable) Snapcaster Mage.
Armada Wurm is $7-8
Trostani has nose-dived back down to $5-6. I would acquire many copies of it if it hits $4 or below because the card is EDH the card and also has modest-absurd block applications, meaning it may translate to the same in Constructed.
The rare mass/removal spells are $5-3. I would grab all of them at $4 or below. They
are very good in Standard and non-Standard formats. Uncounterable Wrath and Smother-Pulse are especially good in Legacy and Modern, and I feel like Dreadbore is underrepresented for being a non-conditional removal spell that also affects one of the strongest card types in the game.
Loxodon Smiter is under $3 and is undervalued at that price. It just *just* an uncounterable 3-mana 4/4, but a 4/4 is currently the standard king of the hill creature size in Standard and Modern for all but ramp/cheated-into-play creatures (I am aware 5/3 has an additional point of power, but 4 toughness outlasts Searing Spear and fights Beast tokens, while matching Angel tokens in size). I don't expect it to go above $5 and this speculation may not even pan out (after all, it is *just* a cheap creature with some peripherally relevant additional rules text). I would trade for them with the expectation that they will probably not lose value in Standard, barring a 3-mana 5/5 in Gruul.

Cards I would keep an eye out for are
Precinct Captain, Rest in Peace, Desecration Demon, and Mizzium Mortars. I expect many of them are priced correctly, but Rest in Peace is seeing a lot of action across formats, Desecration Demon may pan out to be a real card ala its Worldwake analog, Precinct Captain is consistently seeing play in aggressive white decks and Boros and Orzov, two token-based guild colors, are in Gatecrash, and Mizzium Mortars kills all but Angel of Serenity in Standard.

[Thrillho]

Prices have begun to substantially cool in RTR.
Jace is now sitting low at $18.50~
Shinx's Revelation is hovering around $17-18
Angel of Serenity is around $16
Temple Garden has defied the odds and is the most expensive shockland at $11
The remaining shocklands are between $10 and $7.50.
Deathrite Shaman remains a hot commodity as the only card gaining value steadily among price drops at $8 low.
Vraska is sitting around Deathrite Shaman's value without seeing nearly as much play.
Armada Wurm and Rakdos' Return both hover around $6
Abrupt Decay, most likely due to Eternal format adoption, is the highest value of RTR's rare removal spells at $4.50
The remaining spells (Dreadbore, Detention Sphere, Supreme Verdict, and Mizzium Mortars) are all between $3-$1.5, with the formermost two edging closer to $3.5. I would acquire the latter 3 at this time because the former two are seeing Modern and Legacy play, while Mizzium
Mortars is merely undercosted as a kind of "Destroy Target Creature/Wrath of God" split card.

Niv Mizzet is also around $3. I would grab them because even absent any constructed play (which I think they have a decent shot, that guy is awesome), it will very assuredly be a casual staple. Same is true of Trostani, but with a far less inexpensive price tag ($4, a whole dollar more).

[RUBRDUX]

Just before the set dropped, no one cared about Sphinx's Revelation. I hoarded those things ASAP! On Oct 13th, I got 2x foil playsets off ebay for $99!!

Anywhoo..
I think Deathrite Shaman will rise some more as the block continues. And Chromatic Lantern may sprout legs once people begin to splash.
Most of RTR will stay where it is or drop a tad, but there will be a few cards that will hold or perk up... price wise, i mean. ;p
.
.

[Thrillho]

Sphinx's Revelation was a called shot weeks prior to RTR, so that you managed to predict the rise of value of a card that everyone knew was going to succeed is an unprecedented feat. Congratulations.

Deathrite Shaman has no reason to increase in value as the block continues without fetchlands in the format, as its value is entirely situated in Eternal markets where it can function as a Birds of Paradise with upside. It will go up in value because of its prevalence in Modern and Legacy, but that value is probably going to go the way of Snapcaster Mage -- stable for a while, mild to moderate decline before the block is over, slow and steady gain once packs are no longer being opened. $10 is not a bad price for them, but I also expect them to fall as low as $6-8. I would not avoid them even if their value decline were a sure thing.

Chromatic Lantern is a bad Coalition Relic. Decks playing 4-5 colors right now do not play it,
and having a full 10 shocklands in the format isn't going to make mana harder for decks to cast spells. If control decks need the acceleration, I don't think Chromatic Lantern is going to hurt that, but the only accelerants with traction at this time also serve separate functions of killing your opponent (or are Farseek).

[Thrillho]

Rakdos's Return is currently $5 and I am told it is a good card. If you have spare $5 bills hanging around, I would recommend -- via Hot Tip from PhantomS -- that you throw them at the undervalued but highly playable Mythic rare.

I was wrong about Deathrite and Abrupt Decay, those guys keep going up. I'm sorry if you were waiting on my advice to buy into them. They may still yet go down or stabilize, but they're really expensive for right now.

[Thrillho]

Some notes about current card trends:
Jace is the most-played Planeswalker in RTR Block and is also one of the most played cards overall.
Sphinx's Revelation, Detention Sphere, and Supreme Verdict are each played in similar numbers to or greater than Jace.
Mizzium Mortars and Supreme Verdict are the most played removal spells in the block.
Dreadbore follows those two, though I would caution that its inflated number may be mostly propped up by the fact that it is essentially the only "Destroy target creature" spell for 2-mana in the format and can also kill Planeswalkers. It is also aided by the fact that Oros-colored decks are only second to UW/x control decks in format prominence.

I raise these notes now because many of these cards are either slightly elevated from or at their lowest price points since RTR release (IE Mortars and Spreme Verdict are only slightly higher than their low values by a dollar or so;
Jace is up to $10 from a low of $8-9). Revelation is back on a rise from a low of ~$16 back up to $20 and growing, so if you didn't get it at $4 (presale) or $16 (low post-release), it is very likely you should buy in now.

[Yannaria]

what do you think about speculating on Niv Mizzet Dracogenius? Worth it or should I be focusing on Verdicts, Spheres, Jaces, and Mortars

[Thrillho]

niv mizzet dracogenius is not a card in block or standard, so unless there is a drastic need to play izzet 6-drops post-rotation with Greco-Roman block, your best bet is stockpiling them in hopes that EDH will spike that value. This isn't the worst idea since non-Mythic original flavor Niv Mizzet was a $12 card because of EDH, but assuming you're going to make bank off of a marginal-to-irrelevant card in Standard that sees play in no other tournament formats is not advised.

Conclusion: it is a safe investment because it is an EDH Mythic, but it is not going to go up in the immediate future because of Standard.