LEGO Movie Mafia - Game Over - Town Win

[RedNihilist]

1 day, 19 hours.

1 day 6 hours 7 minutes

[Azrael]

Lord M, Dechs, we need you!

Kpaca will still be here tomorrow, he can't lurk the whole day away without answering anyone's questions.

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm in an airport about to get on a 14 hour flight. It leaves in three hours.

[Dechs Kaison]

MoJo hasn't shown up since before he started getting attention. I think he's trying to lurk out of his hanging. He's still at L-1 if my counts are right. You want to avoid a no Lynch, then I need you.

[Azrael]

MoJo hasn't shown up since before he started getting attention. I think he's trying to lurk out of his hanging. He's still at L-1 if my counts are right. You want to avoid a no Lynch, then I need you.

Mojo is a notorious lurker with a long history of inconvenient disappearances. I wouldn't care to read anything into his absence, and I certainly would not care to lynch him without giving him or his successor an opportunity to respond. Even if that means a no-lynch.

There isn't a case against Mojo. We've got no behavioral analysis, at all, and no defense or response to any of the questions you've raised about his role-claim. He's just a guy who needs to be replaced. Don't waste a lynch on something the mod needs to take care of.

[Azrael]

Mod, requesting an extension/replacement due to Mojo's extended and HIGHLY inconvenient absence.

[hamfactorial]

If you're adamant about not lynching MoJo, go for a NL and lynch me tomorrow if you still think I'm scum. My bot buys us a mislynch.

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm on my phone, so I can't type up something nice, but the case against Ham is no better than the case against MoJo.

He's been dodging attention for too long. He never had a day vig power and it's obvious looking at the decision process of his. Just delaying tactics. He knows there's a deadline and is banking on us not hanging a lurker.

Let's just get this done.

[Dechs Kaison]

Az, you're not going to hang Ham. There's no support for it. Not from me for sure. If you want something done today, we need your vote.

Maybe I'm wrong. Worst case we hang a non cooperative and useless townie.

[Dechs Kaison]

Also, even if I'm wrong, we'll win this tomorrow.

[Azrael]

I'm on my phone, so I can't type up something nice, but the case against Ham is no better than the case against MoJo.

There IS no case against Mojo.

A case requires behavioral analysis, of which you've presented none. You've asserted the theory that he's lurking to avoid the lynch, but you've got zero evidence to support that.

He's been dodging attention for too long. He never had a day vig power and it's obvious looking at the decision process of his. Just delaying tactics. He knows there's a deadline and is banking on us not hanging a lurker.

Let's just get this done.

Dechs, it's been obvious that Mojo was pulling some kind of a fast one with his vig-claim since two or three weeks ago. Hell, I was making thinly veiled references to that idea in the thread, at the time. What's not obvious is WHY. If anything, it looks more like a poorly executed townie gambit than anything else.

And it's not like Mojo's lurking came on just as soon as people started questioning him about his claim. He's been a lurker for years of games, and even in this game, has been lurking intermittently.

[Azrael]

Also, even if I'm wrong, we'll win this tomorrow.

We have barely enough votes to take out Ham, today. We might be one short of people who are willing, but will barely skate in to the right decision based on deadline pressure, like we barely accomplished with GR yesterday.

Meanwhile, if Ham lives, he's going to point a NK straight at my head, and then probably try to parade around with his 2-life bat device tomorrow as if that's going to clear him when he proves that he has a two-life ability. (Because a scum-aligned builder absolutely wouldn't LOVE to have that device)

To avoid that, we need to kill him today. Before it takes two entire lynches to eliminate him.

[Azrael]

Hell, even if you do successfully test the Ham device tomorrow, he's going to have THREE nightkills before he could possibly be lynched if that device goes active. We don't have the luxury to wait on killing Ham later.

Lynch this scum, today.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ham is not the scum you're looking for. He was on the GR wagon too early and he's not the lurking liar.

My plane is boarding soon. Have fun fellas.

[hamfactorial]

Bro, if I were scum I would have killed you last night. What makes tonight any different?

Either way, I still don't have anything I can do at night. See my reaction to your gambit at the start of the day.

[Azrael]

Ham, you already tried to kill me last night, and failed.

Az, you're not going to hang Ham. There's no support for it. Not from me for sure. If you want something done today, we need your vote.

Maybe I'm wrong. Worst case we hang a non cooperative and useless townie.

Most of our townies are lurky. But warm bodies are all that's keeping us from dying to the mafia. That's not a good reason to fudge a poor lynch.

If you've got a problem with the Ham case, let's talk about it. But we literally have no other wagon that has the slightest bit of behavioral analysis behind it. You're talking about going with a random lurker lynch, over a thorough case by your most experienced analyst, who's made 13 out of his last 14 lynches as town correctly. How does that make sense?

I literally don't know how else to convince people to follow my lead at this point, because I don't think half the town is fully keeping up with the thread, let alone actually reading my case in any detail, or doing detailed research of their own.

PPE: Dechs, Ham WASN'T on the GR wagon early. Despite expressing support for the "honesty" tell idea, he dragged his feet and did everything possible to deflect on to first RN, then, Lord McD, and you, until it finally became evident that GR was going to be killed off as the only viable lynch for the day and everyone piled on at once.

Again, this was reviewed as part of my case. How closely did you read it?

[Azrael]

Also requesting extension due to DK's plane-boarding/vacation.

[hamfactorial]

Nah, didn't try to kill you because I'm not scum. Nice try though.

If someone had jailed/blocked me to prevent a NK, I'm sure they would have said something by now.

[imopen2]

I'm reading, but I don't really want to lynch ham. Hopefully I have time tonight to look into a couple people

[Stardust]

Extension granted. You have an additional 48 hours. Deadline is now Friday Oct 10.

[Azrael]

Nah, didn't try to kill you because I'm not scum. Nice try though.

If someone had jailed/blocked me to prevent a NK, I'm sure they would have said something by now.

Awww, cute, you're trying to figure out how I stoppped your kill.

[Mcdonalds]

Here's my reasoning for voting jones

Jones is a claimed vig (for simplicities sake, let's say he is), now if ham is the today's lynch (I'll trust you on this one), we can ask jones to shoot ham, if he is in fact scum, we win (assuming there are 2), now if he turns up town, sucks but we know jones is more than likely town and we make finding the actual scum that much easier (I feel at this point we are 1-2 flips from simply winning the game, if we haven't already)

Given that he hasn't shot anyone yet (despite his intentions of shooting imopen) I feel the line is to vote jones into doing something, if anyone hammers before he returns, that person is likely scum or should have a good talking to, if he doesn't, we vote him, and move onto tomorrow.

[Mcdonalds]

This line also takes into the (unlikely IMO) possibility of a 3 scum team by having jones shoot the other scum candidate

[Azrael]

Here's my reasoning for voting jones

Jones is a claimed vig (for simplicities sake, let's say he is), now if ham is the today's lynch (I'll trust you on this one), we can ask jones to shoot ham, if he is in fact scum, we win (assuming there are 2), now if he turns up town, sucks but we know jones is more than likely town and we make finding the actual scum that much easier (I feel at this point we are 1-2 flips from simply winning the game, if we haven't already)

Given that he hasn't shot anyone yet (despite his intentions of shooting imopen) I feel the line is to vote jones into doing something, if anyone hammers before he returns, that person is likely scum or should have a good talking to, if he doesn't, we vote him, and move onto tomorrow.

I think that's a decent line of play assuming Jones comes back, and isn't surly about having his kill directed, and actually HAS a kill to use today.

[hamfactorial]

Nah, didn't try to kill you because I'm not scum. Nice try though.

If someone had jailed/blocked me to prevent a NK, I'm sure they would have said something by now.

Awww, cute, you're trying to figure out how I stoppped your kill.

Aww, you're still tunneling! So precious.

[Azrael]

Nah, didn't try to kill you because I'm not scum. Nice try though.

If someone had jailed/blocked me to prevent a NK, I'm sure they would have said something by now.

Awww, cute, you're trying to figure out how I stoppped your kill.

Aww, you're still tunneling! So precious.

Trench warfare style, baby.

[imopen2]

well, since i doubt kpaca is coming back, we probably need a better plan

[Mcdonalds]

We have time, a lot can happen between now and Friday as well

[Mcdonalds]

Here's my reasoning for voting jones

Jones is a claimed vig (for simplicities sake, let's say he is), now if ham is the today's lynch (I'll trust you on this one), we can ask jones to shoot ham, if he is in fact scum, we win (assuming there are 2), now if he turns up town, sucks but we know jones is more than likely town and we make finding the actual scum that much easier (I feel at this point we are 1-2 flips from simply winning the game, if we haven't already)

Given that he hasn't shot anyone yet (despite his intentions of shooting imopen) I feel the line is to vote jones into doing something, if anyone hammers before he returns, that person is likely scum or should have a good talking to, if he doesn't, we vote him, and move onto tomorrow.

I think that's a decent line of play assuming Jones comes back, and isn't surly about having his kill directed, and actually HAS a kill to use today.

Even assuming he does and cannot use it for some reason, we then better understand what the scum can and cannot do, which isn't horrible (provided people are paying attention and connect the dots)

If he's surly, well, whatever he's surly, and we get to hear him out

In that case, perhaps he presents an alternative plan, and we switch to lynching ham (I feel he is town, although he has given up honestly, but for the sake of advancing the game, lynching him isn't the worst idea)

[hamfactorial]

LMD:

I haven't given up, I'm just done with Azrael. There are players here who are doing less than me, please don't misrepresent my activity or motivation.

[Dechs Kaison]

Landed. Still do not intend to change my vote.

[Azrael]

For those of you who are NOT lynching Ham at the moment, I highly recommend you hit the books and do some behavioral research to get a better feel for the accuracy of your wagon, to either confirm or disprove your reads. If you don't have time today, then maybe when I'm gone.

The best method I've found is to reread a player's posts is through an entire thread reread. That allows you to see how they reacted to others' posts within an accurate context, whereas reading just a list of all their posts doesn't always allow you to see whether their response fit what was going on, and how it connected to other players' activity. If that sounds like too much time and effort, you can switch to a search-generated list of posts that you briefly read the posts surrounding it, then form your analysis.

Things you're looking for:

A. Do their reactions read naturally, like someone who is speaking off the top of their head, or do they seem somehow contrived or artificial?
B. Is there a strong emotional content in the post, and how did their emotions get that way? Is it more likely to come from one alignment, or another?
C. Is that person trying to subtly manipulate you in some way?
D. Is that person talking and behaving as if they believe they're on the same team as you?
E. How are they reaching their votes and behavioral analysis stances? Does it read like they're coming up with them organically in reaction to events in the thread? Are changes in stances consistent and easily explained? Does it look like there's a strategic pattern to them, such as picking on weaker players, or joining popular bandwagons, in order to secure mislynches or secure credit for bussing?
F. Ultimately, you're looking for an accurate picture of what the person is thinking and feeling, and if you're able to get inside their head, you then determine whether what they're thinking and feeling fit best under a town or scum mentality.

Styles of analysis you should avoid:
1. Don't assume that bad play or lazy play is scummy. Try to understand why the bad play or lazy play might be occurring using textual clues and your knowledge of the player. Consider all probable explanations, then decide if any of them are strong enough for you to form a conclusion.
2. Don't strive to reach a pre-determined conclusion and read everything in that light. Keep an open mind to evidence which contradicts your original theory.
3. Don't put much weight on "possible" tells, tells that are valid only if another set of conditions are assumed to be true.
4. Don't put much weight on "logic" tells, errors in argumentation such as ad hom, or misrepresenting your case. These are usually just a sign that someone is bad at arguing.

[Azrael]

While you're doing this analysis, be sure to quote the posts you're analyzing, and write about each relevant post in their history as you go through. If you can't learn something from a post, don't bother quoting it and wasting time and space.

This is called a PBPA, post by post analysis, and it's the #1 scum-catching tool in any serious players' arsenal. Once you're past the learning stage of the game, a lot of players will refuse to vote for someone who doesn't yet have a detailed PBPA case against them.

[Stardust]

Votecount!

Mogadishu Jones (4): Dechs Kaison, hamfactorial, Lord_Mcdonalds, RedNihilist
imopen2 (1): Mogadishu Jones
hamfactorial (2): Azrael, rezombad

Not voting: imopen2

With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.



2 Days, 6 hours to deadline. Deadline Clock.

[Azrael]

I kind of doubt I'll have time to do a PBPA on Mojo before we run out of time today. If I do, I'll try it. But the inability to do any kind of serious analysis on him, or even to get him to answer questions from us, is a huge problem

It's pretty much mafia malpractice to lynch someone without at least affording them an opportunity to respond and defend themselves. That's particularly true when we haven't even done any behavioral analysis on the guy. Mojo might have a perfectly reasonable explanation for not having fired off his vig-shot yet, but we'll never know if we lynch him before he or his replacement is able to come back to us. He might have a history full of pro-town tells, but we'll never know because he was lynched without anyone analyzing his history to find them.

In pushing a lynch on Mojo like this, we're driving a car without headlights, brakes, or a seat belt. We're not going in search of any of the relevant information we need, and we're not taking any of the precautions that would allow us to easily figure out if we're wrong.

[Azrael]

Ham, what were the inventions you'd claimed to have submitted prior to today, again?

[hamfactorial]

On D1, I submitted a cloaking device attachment that would make me untargetable at night (2 days), a lie detector that would alarm the first time anyone in the thread lied about their alignment (4 days), and a snooping device that would send me copies of messages posted to shared off-site topics at night (infinity days).

Stardust said my 3rd device would break the game, so he let me submit an alternate third device. I submitted the bat bot (2 days).

[Azrael]

I've submitted 3 more inventions today.

1. A one-shot day device that gives the name of a random living townie and announces it in the thread.

2. A one-shot vote rigging device that lets my vote count twice during that day.

3. A bat cape extension that lets me hide another player at night to make them untargetable.

Ok. I was looking for this.

Walk me through your thought process on invention #2, and why on invention #3 you wanted untargetability rather than a doc protect, please.

[hamfactorial]

I've submitted 3 more inventions today.

1. A one-shot day device that gives the name of a random living townie and announces it in the thread.

2. A one-shot vote rigging device that lets my vote count twice during that day.

3. A bat cape extension that lets me hide another player at night to make them untargetable.

Ok. I was looking for this.

Walk me through your thought process on invention #2, and why on invention #3 you wanted untargetability rather than a doc protect, please.

I think being untargetable is a more powerful effect for a townie than a doc effect, since it prevents jailing and roleblocking interference from scum. It's also more sneaky, and I wanted to get the bonus from my expertise. If I submitted a straight doc ability, I expect it would take longer to build.

A double vote is a fine way to break a stall in endgame.

[Azrael]

I've submitted 3 more inventions today.

1. A one-shot day device that gives the name of a random living townie and announces it in the thread.

2. A one-shot vote rigging device that lets my vote count twice during that day.

3. A bat cape extension that lets me hide another player at night to make them untargetable.

Ok. I was looking for this.

Walk me through your thought process on invention #2, and why on invention #3 you wanted untargetability rather than a doc protect, please.

I think being untargetable is a more powerful effect for a townie than a doc effect, since it prevents jailing and roleblocking interference from scum. It's also more sneaky, and I wanted to get the bonus from my expertise. If I submitted a straight doc ability, I expect it would take longer to build.

A double vote is a fine way to break a stall in endgame.

A. Makes sense.

B. I'm just going to point out this answer to the thread at large and allow them to form their own conclusions about your thought process on that.